Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
